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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-11-22T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-22T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27829/-1
CME Note: Southern directed CME as seen in LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Partial halo. Source is a faint and broad area of dimming spanning from about E20-W30 (near AR3489 to AR3498) starting at about 2023-11-22T20:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery. There was a C4.1-class flare from AR 3489 (S15E07) with peak time 2023-11-22T19:02Z associated with this event. Arrival signature is complex, with solar wind speed was jumping from 480 km/s to over 550 km/s, reaching a maximum near 600 km/s and a corresponding amplification of B_total from 7 nT to 18 nT and of density from 17 to over 25 particles/cc. The signature is complicated by the preceding arrival of a coronal high speed stream on 2023-11-24.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-25T07:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-25T19:44Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.66667 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 1.85 hour(s)
Difference: -11.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-11-25T06:08Z

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